State of San Diego Real Estate

THE STATE OF SAN DIEGO LUXURY REAL ESTATE – August 2009

With all that is written about the condition of the real estate market, whether it be nationwide, statewide or San Diego County, it is important to recognize that what is published is a very broad view of the market, and this view may or may not apply to a specific area.

With all that is written about the condition of the real estate market, whether it be nationwide, statewide or San Diego County, it is important to recognize that what is published is a very broad view of the market, and this view may or may not apply to a specific area. Just as weather patterns differ by location, the real estate market can dramatically differ from neighborhood to neighborhood. . In this edition, we are looking at the communities

of Solana Beach and Encinitas,  as well as updating the information presented last month on Rancho Santa Fe, La Jolla, Carmel Valley, Del Mar, and Coronado . We will continue to update the 7 areas presented here so that San Diegans will know what is happening in the real estate market in their neighborhoods.

The Approach: As with any detailed market analysis, it is essential that we look at past sales activity by price categories in order to understand how the current sales compare to the past sales activity. Additionally, it is important to compare the number of most recent sales to the number of properties on the market. This assists in understanding how the supply/demand ratio has impacted and will continue to impact values, and helps forecast the number of sales that may occur in the future. This information is vital for the development and implementation of marketing and pricing strategies for both sellers and buyers.

Solana Beach

The above information shows the number of home sales each year by price range going back to 2002.   The number of sales that have closed thus far this year (through July 15, 2009) is also shown as well as the number of open escrows and the number of homes listed for sale in each of the identified price ranges.  A review of this information reveals that Solana Beach (92075) has just over a twelve-month supply of listed inventory (current number of listings divided by the total number of sales in 2008).  In 2003, Solana Beach enjoyed its highest number of closed sales with 304.  There were 136 sales last year in 2008, representing a 55% reduction from the peak in 2003. When looking at specific price ranges, Solana Beach has a very active market in attached and detached homes priced below $1.5 million.  81% of all sales in 2008 occurred below $1 million and thus far this year 83% of all sales have closed below that price.  The inventory levels below $1.5 million represent a 10.5-month supply of inventory based on 2008 sales volume.  Sellers, therefore, have a reasonable real opportunity to sell their homes relatively timely.  Buyers, on the other hand, have the comfort of purchasing under stabilizing market conditions.  In the over $1.5 million to $3 million price range, there is approximately a 23 month supply of inventory, and in the price ranges above $3 million, there is a supply of inventory of approximately  24 months.

What does this mean?

Solana Beach has one of the most favorable balances between supply and demand of all its surrounding communities.  While the number of sales has declined since its peak in 2003, the movement toward a favorable balance of supply and demand should provide both sellers and buyers a level of comfort in making their selling and buying decisions.

The Silver Lining:

With an aggregate of just over 12 months supply of inventory on the market, Solana Beach is moving nicely toward a stable community for both buyers and sellers.  There is sufficient inventory to provide buyers a well-rounded selection of homes to consider, yet not enough that sellers need to wonder whether their homes will sell.

Carmel Valley Chart – click here

Carmel Valley Graph- click here

Coronado Chart- click here

Coronado Graph – click here

Del Mar Chart- click here

Del Mar Graph – click here

Encinitas Chart – click here

Encinitas Graph- click here

Solana Beach Chart- click here

Solana Beach Graph – click here

La Jolla Chart- click here

La Jolla Graph – click here

Rancho Sante Fe Chart- click here

Rancho Sante Fe Graph – click here

Encinitas

Like Solana Beach (see previous page), the above information compares, by price range, the number of homes sold each year going back to 2002.  It also references the number of sales this year through July 15, the number of homes currently in escrow and the number of homes listed for sale.  This information shows that Encinitas (92024) has just under a 6-month supply of listed inventory (current number of listings divided by total sales in 2008).  In 2003, Encinitas enjoyed its highest number of closed sales with 915.  There were 446 sales in 2008 representing a 51% reduction from 2003’s peak.  The most active price range is under $1 million dollars with 73% of all sales falling within this range in 2008 and 85% of sales falling within this range thus far in 2009.

What Does this Mean?

Encinitas has one of the most favorable balances between supply and demand of all its surrounding communities.  While the number of sales has declined since its peak in 2003, this favorable balance provides sellers the opportunity to sell their homes relatively quickly.  Buyers, on the other hand have the comfort of purchasing under stabilizing conditions relative to the number of homes available and the number of sales that are taking place on an annual basis.

The Silver Lining

With an aggregate of less than six months supply of inventory on market, Encinitas is poised to remain a stable community for both buyers and sellers.  There is sufficient inventory to provide buyers a well-rounded selection of homes to consider, yet not enough that sellers need wonder whether their homes will sell within a reasonable period of time.

Del Mar:  7/15/2009

Sales Activity:  Over the past month, the total number of closed sales in 2009 rose from 57 to 71, an increase of 14 closed sales.  The number of homes in escrow as of July 15, 2009 decreased to 28 from 38 the month before. When factoring in the 14 properties which closed escrow since June 15, 2009 there were only 4 escrows opened since June 15, 2009.

Inventory levels:  The number of homes listed for sale has risen slightly over the past month to 199 compared to 191.  The current listing inventory equates to almost an 18-month supply, one of the highest level of inventory when compared to other San Diego County luxury home communities.

The Silver Lining:  There continues to be a wide variety of homes that buyers can choose from.  Sellers willing to become more competitive with their pricing still have an opportunity to entice the right buyer.

 Carmel Update:  7/15/2009

 Sales Activity:  Sales activity in Carmel remains consistently active.  There were 64 closed sales during the past month, raising the total number of closings year-to-date from 200 a month ago to 264.  (Through July 15, 2009) The number of homes in escrow dipped slightly, decreasing to 153 from 156.  Subtracting the number of closed sales the previous month, there were 61 net new escrows opened.

Inventory levels:  During the last month, the total number of homes listed for sale increased by about 8%, increasing from 267 to 289.   The inventory level is up slightly to a 6- month supply compared to just under that of a month ago.

The Silver Lining:  Carmel Valley’s supply / demand ratio has remained relatively consistent over the past month.)  This is good news for both the Buyers and Sellers.  Carmel Valley remains one of the most stable communities within its geographic area. The favorable balance of the number of new home sales and the number of homes available to purchase should provide both sellers and buyers a level of comfort in making their selling and buying decisions.

 Coronado Update:  7/15/2009

Sales Activity:  Over the past month, the total number of closed sales in 2009 rose from 68 to 82, an increase of 14 closed sales.  The number of homes in escrow as of July 15, 2009 increased to 29 from 27 the month before. When factoring in the 14 properties which closed escrow since June 15, 2009 there were 16 escrows opened since June 15, 2009.

Inventory levels:  The number of homes listed for sale has risen over the past month to 295 compared to 276.  The current listing inventory equates to almost a 21-month supply, one of the highest level of inventory when compared to other San Diego County luxury home communities.

The Silver Lining:  There continues to be a wide variety of homes that buyers can choose from.  Sellers willing to become more competitive with their pricing still have an opportunity to entice the right buyer and buyers have the opportunity to purchase a home with the advantage of the competitive environment.

 Rancho Santa Fe Update:  7/15/2009

 Sales Activity:  Over the past month, the total number of closed sales in 2009 rose from 59 to 67, an increase of 8 closed sales.  The number of homes in escrow as of July 15, 2009 increased to 25 from 21 the month before. When factoring in the 8 properties which closed escrow since June 15, 2009 there were 11 escrows opened since June 15, 2009.

Inventory levels:  The number of homes listed for sale has risen slightly over the past month to 370 compared to 364.  The current listing inventory equates to almost a 27-month supply, remaining the highest level of inventory when compared to other San Diego County luxury home communities.

The Silver Lining:  There continues to be a wide variety of homes that buyers can choose from.  Sellers willing to become more competitive with their pricing still have an opportunity to entice the right buyer.

La Jolla Update:  7/15/2009

 Sales Activity:  Sales activity in La Jolla remains consistently active.  There were 58 closed sales during the past month, raising the total number of closings year-to-date from 174 a month ago to 232.  The number of homes in escrow dipped slightly, decreasing to 109 from 114.  Subtracting the number of closed sales the previous month, there were 53 net new escrows opened.

 Inventory levels:  During the last month, the total number of homes listed for sale increased by about 5%, increasing from 478 to 509.   The inventory level is up slightly to a 12 month supply compared to an 11 month supply a month ago.

 The Silver Lining:  La Jolla’s supply / demand ratio is relatively consistent since we started reporting it (May 18, 2009).  This is good news for both the Buyers and Sellers.  Buyers still have a variety of homes to consider, and sellers are finding that with competitive pricing they have the opportunity to sell their home within a reasonable marketing period.

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